According to a study published in Nature Climate Change by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), investing now to shift steel production away from coal could save approximately $800 billion compared to removing the same emissions later through other sectors or carbon removal methods.
The research, led by Clara Bachorz and Jakob Dürrwächter, models steel sector emissions to 2070. Coal-based steel accounts for roughly 70% of global production and the sector emitted 7% of global CO2 in 2023 more than the entire European Union.
The key insight is timing. Redirecting investment from new coal-fired plants to hydrogen-ready steelmaking and scrap recycling before 2030 could prevent 73 gigatons of CO2 by 2070. That is over 60% of projected emissions if coal-based builds continue (114 Gt). Every blast furnace built today will likely operate until the 2060s with one relining cycle, locking in emissions for decades.
The study warns that India holds the largest planned coal-fired steel pipeline, but most projects have not broken ground yet. This creates a narrow window this decade to redirect capital towards lower-emission technologies.
In Sweden, Stegra's Boden green steel plant is now recognized as an EU Strategic Net-Zero Project. The company recently secured approximately EUR 1.5 billion in credit lines to complete construction, with the final electrolyzer modules installed at its green hydrogen plant last month.
The PIK team found that if the steel sector misses this window, the remaining mitigation options in other sectors become twice as expensive. Early action is not just an environmental choice it is an economic one.
Source: Bachorz & Dürrwächter et al., Nature Climate Change (May 2026); Stegra, EU Strategic Net-Zero Project recognition (April 2026); SMM, Stegra secures EUR 1.5B financing (May 15, 2026)